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Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 11-02-2024, 09:48 AM:

So I know there is a lot of discussion about the 3 Point Shooting ability of this team so I thought I would start a topic around putting a guess on what we think each player may shoot against the Power 5 opponents this year and as team against those opponents. So here are the opponents I want to measure against:

Duke, Clemson, Gonzaga, Louisville, Ohio State and All SEC Conference Games.

My preseason predictions below in those games:

Team Average - 35.1%
Robinson - 35.5%
Brea - 40.6%
Almonor - 38.2%
Butler - 30.6%
Carr - 33.6%
Chandler - 34.4%
Garrison - 20.3%
Oweh - 33.7%
Kriisa - 35.6%
Noah - 38.6%
Perry - 38.8%

I will try and keep it up to date all year. It will give me something fun to do during the season.

Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 11-03-2024, 08:33 AM:

This is pretty cool, Trey. I look forward to seeing where your predictions end up. Just curious - you have Robinson lower than every other guard except one. He went 13-21 in the two exhibition games. Do you think that was a fluke? His form looks pretty solid, and several of his makes were well beyond the 3-point line. I think he's the real deal.

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 11-03-2024, 03:19 PM:

I think this team has the potential to shoot at or slightly more than 40% fromm the arc as a team. Their offense is really good at getting an easy catch-and-shoot opportunity. Yes, top-tier defenses will be quicker to cover, but wow. I like the way the ball moves so far.

EXCEPT, I see a lot of skip passes diagonally across the court. Those won't work against good defenses... turnover almost every time. I hope Pope understands that.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 11-03-2024, 07:33 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by PaulCat:
This is pretty cool, Trey. I look forward to seeing where your predictions end up. Just curious - you have Robinson lower than every other guard except one. He went 13-21 in the two exhibition games. Do you think that was a fluke? His form looks pretty solid, and several of his makes were well beyond the 3-point line. I think he's the real deal.

PC,

Pure volume thing for me. I think he is by far UK’s best player and he is going to draw the best defensive player from opposing teams night and night out and coaches are going to focus on stopping him forcing him to take some difficult shots plus I think he will probably have two or three shots a game at end of shot clock situations and have to force up more contested shots.

[ 11-03-2024, 08:27 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 11-03-2024, 08:35 PM:

I took a little time today to look up the non-freshmen career 3 PT percentages against all competition:

Robinson 164-478 for 34.3%
Brea 224-516 for 43.4%
Butler 104-324 for 32.1%
Oweh 21-57 for 36.8%
Carr 94-273 for 34.4%
Kriisa 238-647 for 36.8%
Almonor 180-468 for 38.5%
Williams 8-26 for 30.8%
Garrison 0-0 for N/A

Posted by rlt4uk (Member # 3194) on 11-05-2024, 07:46 AM:

I look forward to following this throughout the year. Last night we only shot 21 three's and still scored 103 points. Pretty impressive.

Posted by rlt4uk (Member # 3194) on 11-05-2024, 08:01 AM:

Kentucky shot 60% from the field and 45.8% from 3 point range.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 11-13-2024, 09:26 PM:

Carr 2 of 3 for 66.7%
Oweh 2 of 3 for 66.7%
Brea 2 of 4 for 50.0%
Almonor 1 of 2 for 50.0%
Butler 1 of 3 for 33.3%
Kerr 2 of 7 for 28.6%
Robinson 0 of 3 for 0.0%

Team is 10 of 25 for 40.0%

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 11-29-2024, 09:53 PM:

Update on % through all games since they have only paid one power 5 school to date:

Carr 4-10 for 40.0%
Oweh 8-19 for 42.1%
Robinson 14-45 for 31.1%
Butler 5-17 for 29.4%
Noah 1-4 for 25.0%
Almonor 9-21 for 42.9%
Garrison 0-5 for 0.0%
Chandler 3-10 for 30.0%
Perry 1-3 for 33.3%
Kriisa 8-29 for 27.6%
Brea 25-41 for 61.0%

Team 78-204 for 38.2%

Posted by WHO?UK (Member # 2286) on 11-29-2024, 09:58 PM:

Love this thread and it will dictate a lot of how well UK plays against the power 5 teams.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 11-30-2024, 10:39 PM:

Right now Brea is really the one keeping the % up, but he even came back to earth a little this week.

Take Brea's still insane 25-41 out of the picture and the rest of the team is shooting 32.5% combined.

Hopefully Robinson and Kriisa can start knocking down a higher %.

Brea is definitely a better shooter than I imagined. I can tell you that my 40.6% will be too low for that stroke.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 12-04-2024, 01:21 AM:

Carr 3 of 6 for 50.0%
Oweh 3 of 8 for 37.5%
Brea 3 of 6 for50.0%
Almonor 1 of 4 for 25.0%
Butler 3 of 7 for 42.8%
Kerr 2 of 11 for 18.2%
Robinson 2 of 10 for 20.0%

Team is 17 of 52 for 32.7%

Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 12-04-2024, 06:59 AM:

I don't think we're having a "power 5" shooting problem - we're just in an all-out slump. We've gone cold the last three games.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 12-04-2024, 06:59 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by PaulCat:
I don't think we're having a "power 5" shooting problem - we're just in an all-out slump. We've gone cold the last three games.

It is Robinson and Kriisa who have been in season long slumps as they are the only two returning veterans shooting below their career averages. The others are ABOVE their career averages.

I am sure that Coach Pope is working on how he can get Brea more shots. He can't just take 2 threes a game. If this team is going to shoot 30 to 35 a game Brea needs to be taking 10 of those per game in my opinion.

I like the way this team plays but it is not as good as a three point shooting team as last years team with Reeves, Shep, and Dillingham.

Season Averages for the veterans:

Carr - 38.5% (above his career average)
Oweh - 37.5% (above his career average)
Butler - 33.3% (above his career average)
Almonor - 39.1% (above his career average)
Brea - 60.5% (above, well above his career average)
Robinson - 30.8% (below his career average)
Kriisa - 24.2% (below, well below his career average)
Garrison - 0.0%

If you take Brea/Kriisa/Robinson combined they are shooting 39.1% which is 1.0% above the three's combined career averages.

So I guess what I am saying is we are basically above the career averages of the veterans and I would expect the % to continue to creep downward in coming games.

Team shooting 36.8% on the season in total. Without Brea 31.4%, without Brea and Kriisa 32.9%, without Kriisa 38.9%.

Power 5 % = 32.7%
Non Power = 38.0%

[ 12-04-2024, 07:21 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 12-05-2024, 12:42 PM:

Kriisa provides more than shooting, but yeah, he needs to hit at least 30% of his threes to force teams to cover him on the arc. But his ability to make the assist is remarkable.

The one that disappoints me the most is Robinson. I thought he would be one of our primary outside threats to complement Brea. But, alas, his numbers are marginal for his role.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 12-08-2024, 12:41 PM:

Just finished watching the game. Another game that Coach Pope with moves helped the Cats win. Great win.

Here is the 3 Point % update against the Power 5 to date:

Overall Team % against Power 5 is 24-77 for 31.2%

Car 3-7 for 42.9%
Oweh 3-9 for 33.3%
Robinson 4-15 for 26.7%
Butler 3-7 for 42.9%
Alomonor 2-7 for 28.6%
Garrison 1-2 for 50.0%
Chandler 0-1 for 0.0%
Perry 0-1 for 0.0%
Kriisa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 4-12 for 33.3%

Overall Team for entire year 35.9%

Car 5-14 for 35.7%
Oweh 9-25 for 36.0%
Robinson 18-57 for 31.6%
Butler 7-21 for 33.3%
Noah 1-4 for 25.0%
Almonor 10-26 for 38.5%
Garrison 1-7 for 14.3%
Chandler 3-11 for 27.3%
Perry 1-4 for 25.0%
Kriisa 10-38 for 26.3%
Brea 27-49 for 55.1%

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 12-15-2024, 11:43 AM:

LaMont's 6-6 helped turn the tide in 3PT shooting % for the team:

Power 5 %'s:

Team: 35.7%

Carr 34.4%
Oweh 36.8%
Butler 69.2%
Almonor 25.0%
Garrison 50%
Krissa 25%
Bread 31.6%
Perry 0.0%
Chandler 0.0%

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 12-15-2024, 06:04 PM:

Brea fell to 31%???

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 12-15-2024, 06:04 PM:

Brea fell to 31%??? Surely not.

Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 12-15-2024, 09:48 PM:

Brea shot 31% for the Game against UL.

On the season he's hit 34-64 from 3pt land for a 53% Average so far this year!

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 12-16-2024, 02:00 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Tiptree:
Brea fell to 31%??? Surely not.

Against Power 5 Competition YES. So games against Duke/Clemson/Gonzaga/Louisville.

Brea is only 6 for 19 against those schools for 31.6%.

Remember I am doing against Power 5 only. Anyone can see the full year % by going to various websites.

[ 12-16-2024, 02:08 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 12-17-2024, 02:04 AM:

Other than the UL game, we were losing during much of the other three. I think Brea forced a few shots against Dook/Clemson/Gonzaga. When he squares up and gets set, the ball is going in the hoop. Hopefully he'll learn to take better shots as the season goes on.

[ 12-17-2024, 02:05 AM: Message edited by: PaulCat ]

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 12-21-2024, 08:25 PM:

Pretty good sample size now for Power 5 Shooting and it does not look good:

Team is 39-120 for 32.5%

Carr 3-11 for 27.3%
Oweh 4-12 for 33.3%
Robinson 8-27 for 29.6%
Butler 9-16 for 56.3%
Almonor 2-8 for 25.0%
Garrison 1-2 for 50.0%
Chandler 0-1 for 0.0%
Perry 0-1 for 0.0%
Kriisa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 8-26 for 30.8%

Of all teams Georgia State, a non power 5, but the blueprint out on how to defend UK. Pressure them hard on the perimeter, don't leave the wings, and let them try to drive the ball to the middle of the floor because they are not good at finishing at the rim in traffic.

[ 12-21-2024, 08:38 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 01-04-2025, 06:34 PM:

Florida game shooting brings the 3 Point Shooting stats up against the Power 5. Brea was incredible today.

Team against Power 5 is now 53-149 for 35.6%

Carr 5-16 for 31.3%
Oweh 5-13 for 38.5%
Robinson 10-33 for 30.3%
Butler 10-19 for 52.6%
Almonor 2-11 for 18.2%
Garrison 1-2 for 50.0%
Perry 1-3 for 33.3%
Kriisa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 15-35 for 42.9%

[ 01-04-2025, 09:18 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by rlt4uk (Member # 3194) on 01-05-2025, 06:31 AM:

Almonor didn't score a point and the team was plus 20 when he was on the court. That's amazing.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 01-07-2025, 09:36 PM:

And UGA game brings it right back down.

Team 59-174 for 33.9% on the year.

Carr 5-18 for 27.8%
Oweh 5-16 for 31.3%
Robinson 11-38 for 28.9%
Butler 11-22 for 50.0%
Almonor 3-13 for 23.1%
Garrison 2-3 for 66.7%
Perry 1-3 for 33.3%
Chandler 0-1 for 0.0%
Kriisa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 17-44 for 38.6%

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 01-11-2025, 11:41 PM:

Miss State game was crazy. Great shooting night again.

Team Average 75-206 for 36.4%

Carr 6-20 for 30.0%
Williams 0-1 for 0.0%
Oweh 5-17 for 29.4%
Robinson 18-48 for 37.5%
Butler 13-27 for 48.1%
Almonor 6-19 for 31.6%
Garrison 3-4 for 75.0%
Perry 2-4 for 50.0%
Chandler 0-1 for 0.0%
Kriisa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 18-49 for 36.7%

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 01-17-2025, 10:09 PM:

Late on updating after the A&M game. Work has been crazy:

Team Average 84-233 for 36.1%

Carr 6-22 for 27.3%
Williams 0-1 for 0.0%
Oweh 5-17 for 29.4%
Robinson 23-61 for 37.7%
Butler 13-28 for 46.4%
Almonor 7-20 for 35.0%
Garrison 3-5 for 60.0%
Perry 4-8 for 50.0%
Chandler 0-1 for 0.0%
Kriisa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 19-54 for 35.2%

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 01-25-2025, 11:59 PM:

Latest update after Bama and Vandy losses against Power 5. Oddley enough it is almost the same as against non power 5, but players % vastly different. Crazy. Non Power 5 the team is at 37% of 88-238.

Power 5 Team at 36.7% or 104-283

Carr 6-23 for 26.1%
Williams 0-1 for 0.0%
Oweh 6-22 for 27.3%
Robinson 29-73 for 39.7%
Butler 16-35 for 45.7%
Noah 0-1 for 0.0%
Almonor 13-29 for 44.8%
Garrison 4-9 for 44.4%
Chandler 0-2 for 0.0%
Perry 4-11 for 36.4%
Krissa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 22-61 for 36.1%

[ 01-26-2025, 12:01 AM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 02-04-2025, 09:26 PM:

Well let's focus on a positive. 3Pt% shooting keeps improving against the Power 5 over the last three games.

Team now at 38.7% on the year 136-351

Carr 7-25 for 28.0%
Williams 0-1 for 0.0%
Oweh 8-28 for 28.6%
Robinson 42-98 for 42.9%
Butler 16-35 for 45.7%
Noah 1-2 for 50.0%
Almonor 20-41 for 48.8%
Garrison 4-11 for 36.4%
Chandler 0-4 for 0.0%
Perry 6-14 for 42.9%
Krissa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 28-76 for 36.8%

Interesting thing about Brea is he is not a very good "Spot Up" 3 Point Shooter. I bet he is well under 20% on Spot Up threes with no dribble in SEC play. He needs a rhythm dribble and then he is a deadeye. You do not see that very often in a player.

Robinson and Almonor have been sizzling in SEC play.

[ 02-04-2025, 10:00 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 03-02-2025, 09:27 PM:

Have not updated in a while, but I had some time to update today

Team now at 37.5% on the year 193-515

Carr 13-41 for 31.7%
Williams 1-3 for 33.3%
Oweh 13-41 for 31.7%
Robinson 45-108 for 41.7%
Butler 16-41 for 39.0%
Noah 6-18 for 33.3%
Almonor 26-57 for 45.6%
Garrison 8-21 for 38.1%
Chandler 2-12 for 16.7%
Perry 14-38 for 36.8%
Krissa 4-16 for 25.0%
Brea 45-119 for 37.8%

Will not be able to watch or update either game this week as I am leaving for vacation tomorrow night.

Hopefully when I get back the Cat's have won both games, but I will say I hope they end up with the #8 Seed in the SEC Tournament. I would like to see them win that 1st game and get another shot at Auburn. I can't stand Bruce Pearl. Total classless ***** . I would hope that Mark Pope has installed a little pride in these guys and they will not take lightly the Auburn coaches and players classless act after the game.

There is a reason Auburn basketball generally sucks and that is because they don't know how to act like the #1 team in the country. They are capable of losing to anyone, just look at their USC game earlier in the year.

[ 03-02-2025, 09:33 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-03-2025, 08:29 AM:

quote:
There is a reason Auburn basketball generally sucks and that is because they don't know how to act like the #1 team in the country.

They are a reflection of their head coach, who is a thug through and through.

I read an article that said that ABC showed the locker rooms of both teams as the coaches addressed them pre-game. Pearl was acting like a WWF fighter, firing his team up. And, to his credit, it showed. Pope took a much calmer approach. Was that the difference in the game? I don't think so, not enough to explain the blowout. But, it sure is the reason for the way the Auburn players behaved after the game.

Disgraceful.

I have no respect for Bruce Pearl, even if his teams are successful.

[ 03-03-2025, 08:30 AM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]

Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-03-2025, 11:38 AM:

I wouldn’t piss in Pearl’s mouth if his guts were on fire.