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Author
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Topic: Analytics
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WHO?UK
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Member # 2286
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posted 02-22-2025 09:58 AM
KENTUCKY IN POSSESSION:
The Kentucky offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the Alabama defense at this end of the floor. Kentucky is currently ninth in the country in offensive efficiency, while Alabama nationally comes in at #45 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Kentucky offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Alabama defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Alabama defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Kentucky offense will be 36.6% three-pointers (2.0% below the D1 average), 31.3% mid-range jumpers (6.1% above the D1 average), and 32.2% near-proximity twos (4.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Kentucky has been absolutely outstanding converting shots from the floor this season (#2 in overall field goal percentage). The Alabama defense, meanwhile, has been one of the best in the country when it comes to defensive field goal percentage, nationally rated 20th in that category. On this end of the court, the Alabama defense gets the analytical nod in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Kentucky to shoot 36.7% from three (2.0% above the D1 average), 38.5% from the mid-range (2.3% below the D1 average), 63.2% from near-proximity locations (4.9% above the D1 average), and 45.8% overall (1.0% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Kentucky may have a modest rebounding edge on this end of the floor. Kentucky has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 42nd nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Alabama, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 79th in the nation in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Alabama defense likely won't force many turnovers against the Kentucky offense. On offense, Kentucky routinely handles the ball with care. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly stellar, as the squad places fifth in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Alabama D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Kentucky is a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #74 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.8%, ranked #153 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Alabama D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 178th in the country in that category.
ALABAMA IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Alabama should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. This site rates Alabama to be sixth in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Kentucky is currently our #46 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Alabama offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Kentucky defense similarly tends to allow several more opportunities from the outside. Against the Kentucky defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Alabama offense will be 47.4% three-pointers (8.8% above the D1 average), 19.5% mid-range jumpers (5.6% below the D1 average), and 33.1% near-proximity twos (3.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Alabama is a superbly efficient team when it comes to shooting, as the unit is ranked sixth in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 33rd in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the Alabama offense has a notable advantage in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the Kentucky defense has the edge in three-point shooting. We expect Alabama to shoot 31.8% from behind the arc (2.9% below the D1 average), 50.3% from mid-range locations (9.5% above the D1 average), 67.8% from near-proximity (9.5% above the D1 average), and 47.4% overall (2.5% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Alabama has the fingerprint of a unit that can really hammer the offensive boards at an elite level. To boot, they are sensational at scoring quickly off of any second-chance opportunities they obtain (nationally rated #12 in that department). Meanwhile, Kentucky will rarely surrender second chances, and they're likewise top-notch in the category of defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #14 in the country there).
TURNOVERS: The Alabama offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Kentucky defense. When in possession, Alabama rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Alabama heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (fourth in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (71.6%, 204th in the country). Meanwhile, the Kentucky D has been solid at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking 88th in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.
THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect this game to be played at breakneck speed. Neither of these squads has an issue with running in transition. Alabama is first nationally in game pace, while Kentucky presently ranks 29th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Kentucky may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Kentucky wins the battle for positive momentum here, but the analytical edge shouldn't really be classified as a significantly impactful one.
CONSISTENCY: Alabama is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible.
The above is from Haslammetrics. I love Kenpom but I like this sites breakdown of performances, momentum and progression as the season rolls.
My take even with the injuries. Alabama is not an overly dominant rebounding team and we play well when the scoring is high paced. If the Cats can get hot and Sears doesn't get whatever he wants. We have a shot.
Link
[ 02-22-2025, 10:25 AM: Message edited by: WHO?UK ]
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RLTW!
Posts: 898 | From: Savannah Ga | Registered: Dec 2004
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 02-22-2025 08:38 PM
Alas, Sears got anything he wanted.
We are still 7-2 against top 15 teams. So, there is hope for a reasonable seed in the NCAA if we can pull it together and not implode over the final stretch.
I really, really like Amari's game. He made a few bad passes, but he is a legitimate point-center for us. We are just hobbled by too many injuries to beat a team like Bama in their house.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13707 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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