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Author
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Topic: IRAN
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-17-2019 10:47 PM
The mother of all quagmires...three words...Don't do it!
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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boomdaddy
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posted 06-18-2019 08:45 AM
Link1
Not sure who the hell this site is, but here is there view:
Link2
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I'm not in favor of any war. But, Iran is actively hijacking the oil shipping lanes.
This is where the US should charge the Saudis and other countries for helping them reign the Iranians in. They can selectively go after certain targets and they should.
What I would prefer is that Irans nuclear sites be obliterated. The US Government ( the legislative and the executive branches) doesn't have the balls to go after them.
Iran has long funded terrorism in the middle east and terrorist all over the world, including the US. They won't stop. That is what extreme muslims do. You can't do a deal with them, you have to eradicate them. You can't appease them, like Obama did, that only makes them stronger.
Iran will continue attacking the shipping lanes and will ask the World powers to let them have all the nuclear capabilities that they desire, to have peace in the region.
Iran will be able to have access to any high tech military weapons that China and Russia would be willing to supply them. They came out in support of Iran, after Iran denied bombing the oil tankers.
This is very interesting. Iran is thumbing it's nose at the world. This is ploy to become a nuclear super power.
I don't see the powers that be in the US, to do a single damn thing to stop them.
I do see a paltry slap on the wrist coming. That will just be a public show that really has no deterrence. They couldn't stop Pakistan or India from becoming nuclear powers and they damn sure won't be able stop Iran. The problem with Iran is that they are controlled and run by islamist extremists. Empty threats and sabre rattling. That is what the US will do. That is what the US has always done, when it comes to Iran.
Obama was a friend to Iran. I can't figure out why? Yes, Obama was a muslim who lied about being a christian. But, doing what he did, made no sense, no matter how you look at it.
[ 06-18-2019, 08:46 AM: Message edited by: boomdaddy ]
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Tiptree
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posted 06-18-2019 09:19 AM
Geopolitically, Iran is a natural ally of the United States. Their biggest threats are from Russia and it's proxy states in the Caucasus region, and the Sunni Islamic states in the gulf and in Pakistan. Had the Shah not been violently deposed by the 1979 revolution, the political geography of Southwest Asia would be very different.
Instead of being in bed with terror-sponsoring states like Saudi Arabia, we would instead be working with Turkey and Iran, a secular republic (albeit one with a ruthless state security apparatus). Those two nations were, and would still be the dominant powers in the region. The real fault lies at the feet of Carter, who underestimated and ignored the threat of the Islamic revolution.
But, instead, we must contend with the Ayatollahs and "death to America" chants. And now, asymmetric naval warfare in the gulf. Iran has been building up its fleet of small, fast boats armed with missiles that can swarm out and overwhelm the defenses of a US aircraft carrier battle group. That keeps us from using our overwhelming naval power freely, as a loss of a carrier to a bunch of speedboats would be devastating. Now they are using that to shield them from our reaction as they start to wreck the vital oil shipping lanes out of the gulf to the rest of the world. Those ships must pass through the straits of Hormuz, making them even more vulnerable than they are in the rather narrow confines of the gulf itself. It is called the "Persian Gulf" for a reason -- the entire northern coastline is Iran, and Iran can make a real mess of things any time they want to.
Trump's response gets mostly a chuckle. Sending a squadron of B-52s to the gulf is just silly. Those are strategic bombers designed to strike from afar -- stationing them so close to Iran is purely for political points. All that really does is make them vulnerable to counterattack. The problem is that there is nothing we can really bomb that is of value. The nuclear sites are deep underground in "hardened" facilities that can withstand even a direct strike by a precision nuclear weapon. Their naval capacity is disbursed all along the coast, and no individual boat is worth the price of one of our bombs or missiles. Their air force is crippled already by sanctions. Unless we want to wage total war and strike their population centers, what can we do?
Not much, except to continue to cozy up with our murderous friend in Saudi Arabia and provide them with weapons to counter Iran. Sad, but true.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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boomdaddy
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posted 06-18-2019 09:31 AM
I disagree about the biggest threat to the US.
China has been the biggest threat and the most dangerous enemy of the US, for quite some time, and I don't see that changing.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-18-2019 11:08 AM
Boom,
I was not talking out America's biggest threats, I was talking about Iran.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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boomdaddy
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posted 06-18-2019 01:52 PM
No matter what Iran does, it will be business as usual from America. I would bet the farm on it.
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 06-18-2019 03:58 PM
boomdaddy
quote:
No matter what Iran does, it will be business as usual from America. I would bet the farm on it
boom, in a way I'm hesitant to ask this, but what would you do?
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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boomdaddy
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posted 06-18-2019 10:15 PM
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
boomdaddy
quote:
No matter what Iran does, it will be business as usual from America. I would bet the farm on it
boom, in a way I'm hesitant to ask this, but what would you do?
I would take out all of their nuclear facilities. Level them to the ground, without warning.
No sir, you wouldn't want me in the hot seat. I would also take Kerry and put him in front of a firing squad and shoot him for being a spy for Iran.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-18-2019 11:22 PM
Boom,
Their nuclear facilities are below ground. WAAAAY below ground. With yards and yards of reinforced concrete above it.
Our military has already said we cannot take out those facilities, even using nukes.
So, what is your NEXT idea?
[ 06-18-2019, 11:22 PM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-19-2019 08:28 AM
Boom,
quote:
I would take out all of their nuclear facilities. Level them to the ground, without warning.
Even if you could take them out, that is the easy part...then what? Regime change...no choice at this point.
Then what? The Shiite fighters in Syria, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iraqi Shiite forces and fighters from Pakistan and Afghanistan, all hardened and formidable guerrilla fighters, would flood Iran to kill Americans. Russia and China will put their 2 cents in as well. Oh, I don't want to leave out Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian people themselves...unless you want to nuke them too.
Then what? I hope you own a really fuel efficient car because you'd be lucky to sneak a can of WD-40 through the Straits of Hormuz let alone an oil tanker...can you say $5, $7 or even $10/gal gas? Not only gas but virtually everything would rise in price.
Then what? Terrorist attacks on our facilities, allies and citizens around the world. Iran has been cultivating alliances with various terrorist groups around the world for decades and this strategy will serve them well should they be attacked.
Then what? This is not, by any means, a unilateral undertaking. It would require massive resources and personnel...we're going to need help. Can't think of anybody useful that would be a willing participant...can you?
Then what? I don't think Israel can avoid being drawn into the conflict...Iran and Hezbollah will see to it they are....Armageddon?
Then what? America will hunker down for another lengthy, costly and deadly war half-way around the world with no end in sight.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-19-2019 10:38 AM
^^^
What MM said. Spot on.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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Tiptree
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posted 06-19-2019 02:27 PM
Ed,
Bluster about "taking out" this or "blasting" that is easy. Not wanting to put US lives at risk in a no-win situation is not being a "chicken ****" -- something I take GREAT OFFENSE at being called.
Did you notice our complete inability to "win" in either Iraq or Afganistan? How do you expect it to be different versus Iran?
Start with this: How would we "win" in a war against Iran? How would you propose we take out thousands of little speed boats hidden all along the Iranian coast? How would Israel "take care of" Iran?
We don't need Iranian oil, nor much oil from the Gulf States. But Europe and Japan sure do. Do you want us to take the brunt of losses in order to protect Europe and Japan's dependence on oil? Is there any national interest that can be solved by going to war that is worth the risk of significant loss of men and material?
Dropping bombs can cause minor damage, but will it be a victory in any form?
[ 06-19-2019, 02:32 PM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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Tiptree
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posted 06-19-2019 02:36 PM
Ed,
Please limit your comments to debating issues. It is no longer "civil debate" when you start attacking persons instead of ideas. If you cannot stick to debating ideas and feel you MUST attack persons, so be it. I can shut this whole damn forum down in about 15 seconds.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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Tiptree
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posted 06-19-2019 05:35 PM
Given these facts:
(1) Iran's nuclear facilities have been deemed impossible to take out with any sort of military strike (including a nuclear strike)
(2) We have proven time and again the wisdom behind the old adage "never get involved in a land war in Asia" -- see "Korea", "Vietnam", "Afganistan", and "Iraq" for examples of very costly US wars that failed to achieve their objectives.
(3) Iran is geographically a fortress, surrounded by mountains, rugged coasts, swamps, and deserts.
(4) Iran poses a much larger military problem should we decide to invade than any of the previous Asian Land Wars
(5) The US population is war-weary after 18 years of constant attrition abroad with no end in sight.
So, tell me exactly what you propose to do to Iran? Bomb their $50,000 speedboats with $1M precision munitions? Symbolically strike their nuclear facilities, knowing it is futile? Sail a carrier battle group into the Gulf, bristling with weapons, and watch them swarm it with missiles? Send in Special Forces teams to assassinate their leadership?
And then how will you deal with their response? Terror attacks here in the US, and across the world? Open conflagration against Israel and our regional "allies"? Missile strikes against our bases throughout the region?
I agree that stopping a nuclear explosion is a good cause. Just being angry and wanting Iran to stop their nuclear program is not enough. Describe how we can do it.
BTW, Trump's sanctions seem to be having a huge effect on Iran. Other than dealing with the rash of tanker attacks in the short run, and making sure Iran doesn't supply and orchestrate a combined Hezbollah/Hamas attack on Israel, just keeping the economic pressure on Iran may be enough to cripple the regime. Iran is facing serious a serious drought, food shortages, and unrest about how much money they spend propping up Syria and Hezbollah. They also have active resistance from their Kurdish population in the northwest, and worries about Baluch separatists in the southeast. It seems the regime is very brittle, and may collapse under pressure.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-20-2019 11:34 AM
quote:
btw the people of Iran would welcome a regime change! I was there when the Shah was in charge and Iran was a happy prosperous country and the people would welcome a way to return to that era!
I got to know several Iranian students during my time at UK and can't remember any of them liking the Shah. In fact, they hated him.
The people of Iran today may welcome a regime change, but I doubt they would want another dictator.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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boomdaddy
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posted 06-20-2019 12:27 PM
I knew a couple of Iranians in college. They preferred the US. They weren't much on the muslim law in Iran, where women have to be covered up.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-20-2019 01:58 PM
I actually was at Centre College in Danville at the same time that the Shah's nephews were there. Never spoke to them, and other than being even more opulently wealthy than most Centre kids, they fit right in.
For graduation, the Shah gave each of them a Porche, a thoroughbred, and a coal mine (the last two so they had reason to come to Kentucky after graduation). I wonder if they survived the revolution...
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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Tiptree
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posted 06-20-2019 06:36 PM
Iran just shot down a $220M RQ-4A recon drone, and their proxy Houthis just attacked a Saudi base (again) with sophisticated missiles.
Things are heating up to the boiling point, folks. This won't be pretty.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-20-2019 07:29 PM
quote:
Things are heating up to the boiling point, folks. This won't be pretty.
You got that right. The US has no choice but to respond, but better be very deliberate, and careful not to fall into a trap.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-20-2019 08:43 PM
If Israel does any more bombing in Syria, I suspect we will see Hezbollah and Hamas unleash full-blown hell on Israel. Lebanon, Gaza, Yemeni Houthis...all are Iranian allies with significant military capabilities. Plus much of Iraq is under the control of Iran-backed Shia militias.
Our two "proxies", Israel and Saudi Arabia, will be consumed fighting their own battles. Iraq is already in the Iranian camp, and what is left of Syria too. Qatar is "iffy", which is especially worrisome since our largest base in the Persian Gulf is in Qatar. Iran is about to cash in all its chips and force our hand.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-20-2019 09:34 PM
quote:
Iran is about to cash in all its chips and force our hand.
Exactly! The rapid escalation has caught everybody by surprise...except Iran. Iran wants to start the fight now, not later. They're obviously ready...I'm not sure about us.
[ 06-20-2019, 10:27 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-21-2019 08:43 AM
quote:
Fortunately we have a President who will defend our rights and who will not put up with the BS fm Iran.
Trump is implying that some Iranian rogue general acted on his own...claiming that the drone attack was a mistake, not intentional. Iran's response....nope, not true! The drone was in our airspace and we shot it down!
Trump doesn't want this war....it would be economically crippling for our country and, thus, politically devastating for him.
PS
I will absolutely stunned if a week passes before Putin blames the United States.
[ 06-21-2019, 08:52 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-21-2019 12:11 PM
Trump's fault? Who blamed Trump?
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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boomdaddy
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posted 06-21-2019 12:26 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/14/trump-pompe o-attack-kerry-iran-meetings/1306311002/
I also remember Obama visiting countries right after Trump would visit.
This is the worst that I have seen. Kerry needs to be charged and especially those involved in the coup.
The Trump administration has spent the first two years on the defensive, with the coup attempt. Now that it is over, they need to find the culprits, charge them, and make them pay.
It is surreal that the Dems want to take Trump down for obstruction of their failed coup attempt that was based on DNC paid for oppo research. Our evidence was fabricated and misrepresented to the FISA judges for warrants to spy on US citizens and a Presidential campaign, but the real criminal is Trump. What the hell?
There should be some law enacted where the past POTUS isn't allowed to be political, especially outside the US. Sure, they should be allowed to campaign for those in their party, but not make all those public comments against the current administration and especially on foreign soil.
[ 06-21-2019, 12:32 PM: Message edited by: boomdaddy ]
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-21-2019 01:16 PM
Tiptree:
quote:
BTW, Trump's sanctions seem to be having a huge effect on Iran. Other than dealing with the rash of tanker attacks in the short run, and making sure Iran doesn't supply and orchestrate a combined Hezbollah/Hamas attack on Israel, just keeping the economic pressure on Iran may be enough to cripple the regime. Iran is facing serious a serious drought, food shortages, and unrest about how much money they spend propping up Syria and Hezbollah. They also have active resistance from their Kurdish population in the northwest, and worries about Baluch separatists in the southeast. It seems the regime is very brittle, and may collapse under pressure.
^^^This is the way to do it...Trump needs to realize he is ahead...so far. Remember the warning about wrestling with a pig? Well, in this case Iran is the pig.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-21-2019 03:03 PM
Ed:
quote:
You may have ur thread and u and mm can debate as u 2 r patting urselves on the back!
Ed, seriously man, Tiptree and I hardly ever agree on anything, but I'm glad we do on Iran...Iran is a nightmare waiting to happen, imo.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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Tiptree
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posted 06-21-2019 03:04 PM
Ed, it has nothing to do with "superior knowledge". It has to do with attacking a person instead of debating an idea.
That is the only reason I would shut down any thread. We can talk/debate/argue about anything, as long as it doesn't cross the line into personal attacks. I think you agree that the "chicken sh*t" comment was veering over into personal attack instead of offering a reasoned rebuttal.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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ukcatfannfl
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posted 06-22-2019 09:16 AM
"veering"
So comments that "veer" toward a personal attack is the reason u "can shut it down in 15 secs". What would be next perhaps - U "think" it might be "veering" toward etc etc..
- for the record I did not personally attack u only
that policies were the same as the chicken sksks congress.....
isn't power great even here...
[ 06-22-2019, 09:18 AM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
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ukcatfannfl
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-22-2019 11:19 AM
Hell Ed, you got off light. ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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ukcatfannfl
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posted 06-23-2019 11:36 AM
MM probably so! ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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ukcatfannfl
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-23-2019 11:48 AM
I don't know if I have mentioned this before, but I'm not a big Donald Trump fan, and I also think Fox News occasionally tilts to the right in their reporting. That said, I'm in full agreement with the following article.
link
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MountainMafia
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posted 06-23-2019 12:24 PM
Ed,
quote:
MM probably so! [Smile]
Everybody deserves the benefit of a bad day...ain't none of us does right all the time.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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